Africa 2050

Description

Africa is at a critical turning point—what it and its leaders do today will determine where the continent will be socially and economically in 2050 and whether the fast-rising aspirations of Africans are met or crushed. Africa 2050 offers a vision of what could be—an Africa that meets the aspirations of its people and is catching up with the rest of the world in living standards and competitiveness. In such a scenario, by 2050, average per capita income would increase six-fold to over $17,000, moving from one-quarter of the global average to half. An additional 1.4 billion Africans would join the middle class. The number of poor would be reduced ten-fold to fewer than 50 million. Africa’s share of global GDP would triple to 9 percent. These improvements will be formidable compared to the continent’s progress in the past 40 years. But Africa cannot afford to do less. For people of the continent, the biggest change between now and 2050 would be better, less vulnerable jobs with higher productivity. For African economies, the biggest change would be dramatic productivity improvements driven by private sector investment, diversification, and more competition. For the continent, the biggest change would be much better integrated subregions where goods and services flow unhindered, and relations with the world based on trade and investment rather than aid. This vision is possible but certainly not guaranteed—it is just one of several possible scenarios. The vision is ambitious but plausible. Complacency and inadequate political resolve are the biggest threats to realizing it. Africa 2050 offers a strategic framework for realizing the bold vision. The framework comprises three dimensions: prosperous people and cohesive societies, competitive economies, and an integrated Africa. Jobs and sustained growth lie at the core of the framework and are the vehicle to realize Africa 2050. While the specific action agenda has to be, of course, country-specific, this book identifies ten common priority issues that cut across the continent. Better governance is fundamental to delivering results.  The biggest challenge is developing and sustaining a “do whatever it takes” mentality to get results. Pragmatic leadership focused on results and capable states with functioning public institutions will be essential. Hence, whether the 2050 vision is realized or not will depend ultimately on the quality of governance and how institutions work.  

Table of contents

List of Appendixes, Boxes, Figures, and Tables
List of Abbreviations
Foreword
Preface
Acknowledgments
Introduction
Background
Rising Aspirations
A Highly Diverse and Heterogeneous Region
What Is Unique about This Book?
Assumptions and Organization

Part 1: Realizing the Continent's Full Potential
Chapter 1: A 2050 Vision to Meet African Aspirations
The Big Picture
People, Economies, and the Continent
Alternative Scenarios: Enormous Cost of Failure
Chapter 2: Historical Perspectives and Drivers of Future Change
Past Performance
Lessons from Asia and Latin America 30 Drivers of Change: Global and Africa-Specific
Major Risks — Need to be Actively Managed
Chapter 3: Action Agenda — Jobs for People, Economies, and the Continent
Prosperous People and Cohesive Societies—Jobs to Transform Lives
Diverse, Competitive Economies — Private Investment to Create Jobs
Integrated Africa—Bigger Markets to Foster Investment and Higher Productivity Jobs
Chapter 4: Better Governance to Deliver Results
Capable States
Pragmatic Leadership
Concluding Note: Africa's Future Is in Its Own Hands
 

Part II: People, Economies, and the Continent
Section A: Prosperous People and Cohesive Societies — Jobs to Transform Lives
Chapter 5: Accelerating the Demographic Transition
Components of the Demographic Transition
Implications for the Future
Action Agenda
Chapter 6: Eliminating Fragility and Conflict
Africa in 2013: Success, Diversity, and Fragility
Fragile, Conflict-Affected, and Failed States — The Underlying Realities
Future Shocks May Either Destroy or Force Change on Fragile States
Action Agenda
Chapter 7: Ensuring Equity and Inclusion
Evolution of Poverty and Inequality in Africa
Access to Education
Access to Health
Access to Water and Sanitation
Prospects for 2050
Action Agenda
Chapter 8: Breaking the Human Capital Barrier
Key Drivers of Change in Education and Health
Key Messages
Action Agenda
 

Section B: Diverse, Competitive Economies—Private Investments to Create Jobs
Chapter 9: Maintaining Macroeconomic Stability and Increasing Resilience
Broad Trends in Africa's Economic Performance (1960 - 2011)
Investment and Savings Needs for Sustained High Growth
Action Agenda
Chapter 10: Enhancing Growth, Competitiveness, and Job Creation
Current Status: Economic Structure, Employment, Competitiveness, and Productivity
Factors Underlying Africa's Competitiveness, Productivity, and Growth
Vision Africa 2050
Action Agenda
Chapter 11: Transforming African Agriculture
The Challenges
Economic Growth and Agriculture
African Agriculture in 2010
Agriculture Paths to 2050
Action Agenda
Chapter 12: Harnessing Natural Resources for Diversification
Historical Context
A Vision for Africa's Extractive Industries in 2050
Action Agenda
Chapter 13: Managing Urbanization for Growth
Urban Transition
Urban Policy Challenges
Vision for 2050
Action Agenda
 

Section C: Integrated Continent— Bigger Markets to Foster Investment and Higher Productivity Jobs
Chapter 14: Enhancing Regional Cooperation and Integration on the Continent
Why Africa Should Strive for Regional Cooperation and Integration
Economic Imperatives for Regional Cooperation
Past Efforts on Regional Cooperation and Integration
Status of Regional Trade and Investment Flows
Lessons from Other Regions
Action Agenda
Chapter 15: Mitigating and Adapting to Climate Change
Dealing with Climate Change
Africa and Climate Change
Mitigation Measures
Adaptation Plans
Funding, Technology, and Market Mechanisms Associated with Climate Change Measures
Action Agenda
Chapter 16: Repositioning Africa in the World
Evolution of Old and New Partnerships
The Trade Dimension
Investment in Africa: Growing Rapidly but Concentrated
Conflict and Climate Change Have Risen on the Agenda
What is Likely to Happen Next
Action Agenda

Annex 1: Commodity Terms of Trade in Africa: A Fragile Blessing
Annex 2: Model of Global Economy
References
About the Editors and Contributors
Editors
Contributors
Index
Photo Credits