The World in 2050

Description

The world economy has, over the past half century, become increasingly intertwined, and countries mutually dependent. The convergence of emerging market economies (EMEs) with the advanced, richer ones has led to dramatic transformation-where the former have sustained growth rates far higher than the latter. But more recently, given the global economic turbulence since 2007, questions have arisen as to whether the era of rapid convergence is over, and whether more EMEs are destined to get mired in the middle income trap.
This book takes a long-term perspective of the economic and social outlook of the world to 2050, focusing on cross-cutting intergenerational issues that often get overshadowed by the short-term crises and political preoccupations of the day. It argues that for a prosperous economic order, convergence of large developing economies-led by East Asia and India-with the developed world is crucial given the former's share in the global GDP. Addressing the various aspects of emerging markets such as international trade, urbanization, food security, climate change, and governance, the book brings out the role of the global economic community toward increasing living standards throughout the world while pressuring our fragile planet. A joint effort of a multidisciplinary, multicultural team of 26 authors who were born in twelve different countries on five continents, this book is an analytically rigorous exploration of the future of the global economy and its societies.

About the Editor

Harinder S. Kohli is the Founding Director and Chief Executive of Emerging Markets Forum as well as Founding Director, President, and CEO of Centennial Group International, both based in Washington, DC. He is the Editor of the Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies. Prior to starting these ventures 17 years ago, he served in various senior managerial positions at the World Bank for over 25 years, which itself followed his stint in the private sector in India and France. He has written extensively on the emergence of Asia, Latin America, Africa, and other emerging market economies; financial development; and infrastructure. He has led Centennial Group teams that helped Asian Development Bank and Development Bank of Latin America develop their longterm corporate strategies, and has co-edited and/or co-authored ten other books.

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Table of contents

Volume 1: Overview and Global Context
List of figures and tables
List of acronyms
Foreword
Acknowledgements
Overview, Harinder S. Kohli
Chapter 1: Introduction and Historical Context, Harinder S. Kohli
Chapter 2: Global Megatrends, Harinder S. Kohli
Chapter 3: Demographics and Urbanization, Gregory K. Ingram
Annex 1: Classification of Countries into Nine Groups
References
About the editor and contributor
Index

Volume 2: Future of the Global Market
List of figures, boxes, and tables
List of acronyms
Foreword
Acknowledgements
Introduction, Harinder S. Kohli
Overview, Harinder S. Kohli
Chapter 1: Reforming the International Monetary System-A Sequenced Agenda, Michel Camdessus & Anoop Singh
Chapter 2: Governance of the Global Economic, Financial, and Monetary System, Jack Boorman
Chapter 3: Emerging Markets Finance to 2050, Andrew Sheng
Chapter 4: Where will Emerging Markets Stand in Global Trade?, Pascal Lamy
References
About the editor and contributors
Index

Volume 3: Future of the Natural World, Natural Resources, and Technological Solutions
List of figures, boxes, and tables
List of acronyms
Foreword
Acknowledgements
Introduction, Harinder S. Kohli
Overview, Harinder S. Kohli
Chapter 1: Emerging Markets and Climate Change-Protecting and Enhancing Prosperity, Alexander Pfeiffer & Cameron Hepburn
Chapter 2: Crop Yields and Food Security in an Increasingly Affluent World, Marco Ferroni & Yuan Zhou
Chapter 3: Water-A Motor and a Precondition for Sustainable Development in Emerging and Developing Economies, Gerard Payen
Chapter 4: Potential Technological Landscape, R.A. Mashelkar
References
About the editor and contributors
Index

Volume 4: Social Challenges to Realizing a Prosperous Global Community
List of figures and tables
List of acronyms
Foreword
Acknowledgements
Introduction, Harinder S. Kohli
Overview, Harinder S. Kohli
Chapter 1: The Future of Violent Non-state Actors, Daniel Byman
Chapter 2: Eradicating Poverty, Reducing Inequality, and Promoting Sustainable Development, Alejandro Toledo
Chapter 3: The Ultimate Objective of the Development Process-Pursuit of Material Wealth versus Societal Well-being, Yosuke Yasuda
Chapter 4: Changing Lifestyles to Sustain Prosperity for All, Ramgopal Agarwala & Harinder S. Kohli
References
About the editor and contributors
Index

Volume 5: Rise of Emerging Economies and Political Implications for Global Governance
List of figures, boxes, and tables
List of acronyms
Foreword
Acknowledgements
Introduction, Harinder S. Kohli
Overview, Harinder S. Kohli
Chapter 1: Alternative Long-term Scenarios, Claudio Loser, Harpaul Alberto Kohli, Anne Jamison, Alden LeClair, Ieva Vilkelyte, &
Harinder S. Kohli
Chapter 2: The State of Global Governance-An Assessment, Montek Singh Ahluwalia
Chapter 3: Global Partnership-A New Leitmotif for an Interconnected World, Vittorio Hösle & Horst Köhler
Epilogue: Facing Global Challenges between Now and 2050, Michel Camdessus & Harinder S. Kohli
Annex 1: Projection Methodology
Annex 2: Additional Regional and Country-level Results
Annex 3: Assessment of Long-term Fiscal and Current Account Sustainability
References
About the editor and contributors
Index